This and other maps that kept forecasters at the bottom of their bed in 2011 come back, counting down the hours until a new hurricane season
These Updating Maps Show Where Hurricane Ida Could Hit Hardest
Hurricane Ida made landfall on 14 February 2011, as a hurricane on the Yucatan Peninsula. Since that time, many damage projections have gone through the floor (or been swept out to sea) – but projections have one thing in common: they aren’t correct.
In this reconstruction, inspired by the publication of our Waring’s Buoy Watch on Hurricane Ida’s impact – the first attempt to analyse hurricane impact in full – we tracked Hurricane Ida from its earliest arrival at landfall to its nearest landfall – some 4,000 miles away – at Valentine, Florida.
Proportional damage … but we’ve never been more wrong about who gets hit by a hurricane
The effect of even a small hurricane on infrastructure: after being expertly analysed, we’ve been warning against tornado-strength damage and illustrating hurricanes’ speed and direction as estimates of the damage wrought by the storm.
But we’ve never been more wrong about who gets hit by a hurricane. Here, you can see how wrong we were; guess how many first and last landfalled winds we got right?
Because we didn’t know where it was hitting.
What’s striking isn’t so much that we’ve repeatedly underestimated a hurricane’s effect but that we’ve just never known where a hurricane was going to hit.
We’ve been wrong again – by how many? – so whether we’re ever accurate in our forecasts – and how often we’re wrong – depends on where we’re saying the storms are headed. Here’s our final tally from Hurricane Ida in 2011.